What are the odds of being born in a specific country?

That country's births in 2023 divided by all births worldwide in 2023. For Japan that is 749,884 ÷ 132,110,261, or 1 in 176.

Why do other sites show a different number?

Usually a different year for the numerator, or a denominator of people alive rather than births. Both choices move the figure by a few percent. We fix both to a single UN reference year so the number can be checked against the source.

Does a 1 in 176 chance mean 1 person in 176 was born there?

It means one baby in every 176 born in 2023 was born there. It says nothing about any individual, and it is not a prediction about anyone's life.

Chance of being born in any country

The odds of being born in a country

The chance of being born in a given country is that country's births in a year divided by all births worldwide in the same year. In 2023, 132,110,261 babies were born; a country with 749,884 births gave a 1 in 176 chance.

odds = births(country, year) ÷ births(world, year)

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant

Why this is not the same as "1 in N people"

Two denominators are in circulation. Dividing by births answers "if a baby is born this year, where?" Dividing by population answers "if I pick a living person at random, where are they from?" Large, young countries look far more likely under the first question than under the second, and countries with long life expectancy look more likely under the second. Both are correct answers to different questions. We use births everywhere on this site, and say so on every page that shows a figure.

Why one reference year

Mixing a numerator from one year with a denominator from another changes the answer by a few percent and makes it impossible for a reader to reproduce. Every figure on the site uses 2023 for both, except the historical series, which use the same year for both as well.

All 237 locations

Every location the UN publishes with an ISO-3 code and at least one birth in 2023 is included. The smallest is the Holy See with 2 births; the largest is India with 23,219,489. Omitting small locations would change every other country's odds, so none are dropped.

World figures on this page are birth-weighted averages of the 237 national values, computed by us from the published series. They are not UN-published world aggregates; the formula for each is stated above.

Share of world births and the odds of being born there, 2023
#	Country	Odds	Share of world births	Births
1	India	1 in 6	17.5758%	23,219,489
2	China	1 in 15	6.7367%	8,899,881
3	Nigeria	1 in 18	5.6845%	7,509,758
4	Pakistan	1 in 19	5.2093%	6,882,058
5	Indonesia	1 in 29	3.3929%	4,482,359
6	Democratic Republic of the Congo	1 in 30	3.3076%	4,369,683
7	Ethiopia	1 in 32	3.1078%	4,105,685
8	United States of America	1 in 36	2.7685%	3,657,476
9	Bangladesh	1 in 38	2.6417%	3,489,953
10	Brazil	1 in 51	1.9693%	2,601,670
11	Egypt	1 in 55	1.8210%	2,405,717
12	United Republic of Tanzania	1 in 56	1.7761%	2,346,391
13	Mexico	1 in 65	1.5424%	2,037,689
14	Philippines	1 in 72	1.3931%	1,840,477
15	Uganda	1 in 77	1.2965%	1,712,750
16	Sudan	1 in 79	1.2732%	1,682,049
17	Kenya	1 in 88	1.1354%	1,499,998
18	Afghanistan	1 in 90	1.1120%	1,469,029
19	Viet Nam	1 in 95	1.0506%	1,387,961
20	Yemen	1 in 95	1.0498%	1,386,914
21	Angola	1 in 96	1.0456%	1,381,370
22	Russian Federation	1 in 102	0.9819%	1,297,207
23	Mozambique	1 in 105	0.9544%	1,260,855
24	South Africa	1 in 111	0.8983%	1,186,793
25	Iran (Islamic Republic of)	1 in 113	0.8882%	1,173,463
26	Iraq	1 in 114	0.8778%	1,159,682
27	Niger	1 in 121	0.8295%	1,095,892
28	Türkiye	1 in 123	0.8115%	1,072,014
29	Madagascar	1 in 132	0.7579%	1,001,244
30	Côte d'Ivoire	1 in 133	0.7547%	997,001
31	Cameroon	1 in 138	0.7247%	957,392
32	Mali	1 in 139	0.7202%	951,445
33	Uzbekistan	1 in 140	0.7142%	943,547
34	Algeria	1 in 146	0.6858%	905,981
35	Myanmar	1 in 146	0.6841%	903,822
36	Ghana	1 in 149	0.6729%	888,947
37	Chad	1 in 161	0.6200%	819,054
38	Somalia	1 in 167	0.5970%	788,763
39	Japan	1 in 176	0.5676%	749,884
40	Burkina Faso	1 in 181	0.5515%	728,612
41	Germany	1 in 184	0.5444%	719,249
42	Colombia	1 in 187	0.5337%	705,009
43	United Kingdom	1 in 192	0.5211%	688,388
44	Zambia	1 in 193	0.5189%	685,565
45	Malawi	1 in 199	0.5013%	662,289
46	France	1 in 207	0.4836%	638,891
47	Morocco	1 in 210	0.4767%	629,832
48	Thailand	1 in 223	0.4475%	591,200
49	Nepal	1 in 230	0.4347%	574,297
50	Saudi Arabia	1 in 242	0.4133%	546,038
51	Peru	1 in 245	0.4085%	539,623
52	Senegal	1 in 248	0.4026%	531,890
53	Syrian Arab Republic	1 in 253	0.3948%	521,601
54	Argentina	1 in 262	0.3814%	503,823
55	Zimbabwe	1 in 266	0.3761%	496,917
56	Guinea	1 in 271	0.3691%	487,595
57	Benin	1 in 276	0.3619%	478,062
58	Burundi	1 in 287	0.3489%	460,882
59	Malaysia	1 in 303	0.3300%	435,989
60	Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)	1 in 309	0.3232%	426,984
61	Kazakhstan	1 in 323	0.3099%	409,417
62	Rwanda	1 in 334	0.2994%	395,578
63	Italy	1 in 343	0.2911%	384,627
64	Guatemala	1 in 350	0.2855%	377,167
65	Cambodia	1 in 365	0.2737%	361,586
66	Canada	1 in 370	0.2700%	356,745
67	Dem. People's Republic of Korea	1 in 386	0.2589%	342,038
68	Spain	1 in 392	0.2550%	336,821
69	South Sudan	1 in 402	0.2485%	328,308
70	Sri Lanka	1 in 408	0.2453%	324,102
71	Poland	1 in 416	0.2406%	317,916
72	Australia	1 in 434	0.2304%	304,340
73	Togo	1 in 456	0.2193%	289,759
74	Tajikistan	1 in 487	0.2054%	271,420
75	Ecuador	1 in 489	0.2046%	270,300
76	Bolivia (Plurinational State of)	1 in 508	0.1969%	260,151
77	Sierra Leone	1 in 510	0.1960%	258,903
78	Haiti	1 in 511	0.1956%	258,348
79	Papua New Guinea	1 in 517	0.1933%	255,331
80	Central African Republic	1 in 553	0.1808%	238,858
81	Republic of Korea	1 in 559	0.1789%	236,394
82	Jordan	1 in 560	0.1785%	235,776
83	Honduras	1 in 565	0.1770%	233,793
84	Ukraine	1 in 622	0.1606%	212,231
85	Dominican Republic	1 in 650	0.1538%	203,183
86	Congo	1 in 698	0.1433%	189,365
87	Romania	1 in 719	0.1390%	183,623
88	Chile	1 in 750	0.1334%	176,196
89	Mauritania	1 in 764	0.1309%	172,885
90	Israel	1 in 767	0.1304%	172,312
91	Liberia	1 in 777	0.1287%	170,065
92	Netherlands	1 in 787	0.1270%	167,842
93	Tunisia	1 in 788	0.1270%	167,729
94	Lao People's Democratic Republic	1 in 810	0.1234%	163,043
95	Turkmenistan	1 in 825	0.1212%	160,100
96	Kyrgyzstan	1 in 876	0.1141%	150,759
97	State of Palestine	1 in 902	0.1108%	146,384
98	Paraguay	1 in 966	0.1035%	136,778
99	China, Taiwan Province of China	1 in 998	0.1002%	132,404
100	Nicaragua	1 in 999	0.1001%	132,214
101	Azerbaijan	1 in 1,056	0.0947%	125,136
102	Libya	1 in 1,062	0.0941%	124,371
103	United Arab Emirates	1 in 1,270	0.0787%	104,015
104	Belgium	1 in 1,299	0.0770%	101,686
105	El Salvador	1 in 1,329	0.0753%	99,428
106	Eritrea	1 in 1,334	0.0750%	99,058
107	Sweden	1 in 1,349	0.0741%	97,915
108	Cuba	1 in 1,377	0.0726%	95,938
109	Lebanon	1 in 1,417	0.0706%	93,205
110	Czechia	1 in 1,438	0.0695%	91,845
111	Portugal	1 in 1,525	0.0656%	86,646
112	Hungary	1 in 1,547	0.0646%	85,373
113	Oman	1 in 1,553	0.0644%	85,065
114	Switzerland	1 in 1,578	0.0634%	83,702
115	Gambia	1 in 1,609	0.0621%	82,092
116	Austria	1 in 1,715	0.0583%	77,054
117	Namibia	1 in 1,722	0.0581%	76,715
118	Greece	1 in 1,793	0.0558%	73,661
119	Panama	1 in 1,848	0.0541%	71,469
120	Gabon	1 in 1,922	0.0520%	68,745
121	Belarus	1 in 2,031	0.0492%	65,050
122	Mongolia	1 in 2,032	0.0492%	65,019
123	Guinea-Bissau	1 in 2,043	0.0490%	64,679
124	Bulgaria	1 in 2,109	0.0474%	62,645
125	Botswana	1 in 2,155	0.0464%	61,294
126	Serbia	1 in 2,208	0.0453%	59,840
127	New Zealand	1 in 2,230	0.0448%	59,236
128	Denmark	1 in 2,285	0.0438%	57,810
129	Lesotho	1 in 2,371	0.0422%	55,728
130	Equatorial Guinea	1 in 2,415	0.0414%	54,694
131	Ireland	1 in 2,480	0.0403%	53,268
132	Slovakia	1 in 2,527	0.0396%	52,271
133	Costa Rica	1 in 2,542	0.0393%	51,969
134	Norway	1 in 2,563	0.0390%	51,545
135	Kuwait	1 in 2,677	0.0373%	49,342
136	Singapore	1 in 2,783	0.0359%	47,472
137	Georgia	1 in 3,019	0.0331%	43,765
138	Finland	1 in 3,033	0.0330%	43,556
139	China, Hong Kong SAR	1 in 3,199	0.0313%	41,294
140	Armenia	1 in 3,811	0.0262%	34,668
141	Uruguay	1 in 3,950	0.0253%	33,443
142	Jamaica	1 in 4,002	0.0250%	33,007
143	Republic of Moldova	1 in 4,005	0.0250%	32,986
144	Croatia	1 in 4,201	0.0238%	31,446
145	Timor-Leste	1 in 4,323	0.0231%	30,561
146	Eswatini	1 in 4,460	0.0224%	29,622
147	Qatar	1 in 4,476	0.0223%	29,516
148	Albania	1 in 4,587	0.0218%	28,803
149	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1 in 5,377	0.0186%	24,569
150	Comoros	1 in 5,422	0.0184%	24,366
151	Djibouti	1 in 5,517	0.0181%	23,946
152	Solomon Islands	1 in 6,131	0.0163%	21,548
153	Lithuania	1 in 6,164	0.0162%	21,434
154	Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244)	1 in 6,440	0.0155%	20,514
155	Bahrain	1 in 6,755	0.0148%	19,558
156	Puerto Rico	1 in 7,008	0.0143%	18,851
157	Slovenia	1 in 7,380	0.0136%	17,902
158	North Macedonia	1 in 7,827	0.0128%	16,878
159	Guyana	1 in 7,881	0.0127%	16,764
160	Fiji	1 in 7,944	0.0126%	16,631
161	Trinidad and Tobago	1 in 8,209	0.0122%	16,094
162	Cyprus	1 in 9,096	0.0110%	14,524
163	Latvia	1 in 9,271	0.0108%	14,250
164	Réunion	1 in 11,006	0.0091%	12,003
165	Mauritius	1 in 11,192	0.0089%	11,804
166	Mayotte	1 in 11,810	0.0085%	11,186
167	Estonia	1 in 11,971	0.0084%	11,036
168	Suriname	1 in 12,144	0.0082%	10,879
169	Bhutan	1 in 13,267	0.0075%	9,958
170	Vanuatu	1 in 14,699	0.0068%	8,988
171	Western Sahara	1 in 14,700	0.0068%	8,987
172	French Guiana	1 in 17,142	0.0058%	7,707
173	Belize	1 in 17,829	0.0056%	7,410
174	Montenegro	1 in 18,924	0.0053%	6,981
175	Luxembourg	1 in 19,020	0.0053%	6,946
176	Sao Tome and Principe	1 in 20,303	0.0049%	6,507
177	Cabo Verde	1 in 20,514	0.0049%	6,440
178	Brunei Darussalam	1 in 21,182	0.0047%	6,237
179	Maldives	1 in 22,797	0.0044%	5,795
180	Samoa	1 in 24,007	0.0042%	5,503
181	China, Macao SAR	1 in 29,260	0.0034%	4,515
182	Iceland	1 in 30,391	0.0033%	4,347
183	Bahamas	1 in 30,475	0.0033%	4,335
184	Guadeloupe	1 in 31,210	0.0032%	4,233
185	Malta	1 in 31,358	0.0032%	4,213
186	New Caledonia	1 in 31,957	0.0031%	4,134
187	Martinique	1 in 35,437	0.0028%	3,728
188	Kiribati	1 in 38,617	0.0026%	3,421
189	Barbados	1 in 41,873	0.0024%	3,155
190	French Polynesia	1 in 43,089	0.0023%	3,066
191	Guam	1 in 44,920	0.0022%	2,941
192	Micronesia (Fed. States of)	1 in 52,592	0.0019%	2,512
193	Tonga	1 in 54,636	0.0018%	2,418
194	Saint Lucia	1 in 65,434	0.0015%	2,019
195	Seychelles	1 in 75,751	0.0013%	1,744
196	Curaçao	1 in 94,771	0.0011%	1,394
197	Grenada	1 in 96,361	0.0010%	1,371
198	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	1 in 107,232	0.0009%	1,232
199	Antigua and Barbuda	1 in 119,449	0.0008%	1,106
200	Aruba	1 in 129,520	0.0008%	1,020
201	United States Virgin Islands	1 in 137,758	0.0007%	959
202	Cayman Islands	1 in 152,729	0.0007%	865
203	Jersey	1 in 154,877	0.0006%	853
204	Marshall Islands	1 in 160,914	0.0006%	821
205	Greenland	1 in 167,440	0.0006%	789
206	Dominica	1 in 179,011	0.0006%	738
207	American Samoa	1 in 180,725	0.0006%	731
208	Isle of Man	1 in 188,191	0.0005%	702
209	Faroe Islands	1 in 191,464	0.0005%	690
210	Northern Mariana Islands	1 in 226,604	0.0004%	583
211	Andorra	1 in 238,037	0.0004%	555
212	Saint Kitts and Nevis	1 in 240,638	0.0004%	549
213	Bermuda	1 in 253,571	0.0004%	521
214	Guernsey	1 in 253,571	0.0004%	521
215	Turks and Caicos Islands	1 in 266,351	0.0004%	496
216	Saint Martin (French part)	1 in 281,086	0.0004%	470
217	Gibraltar	1 in 284,720	0.0004%	464
218	Sint Maarten (Dutch part)	1 in 338,744	0.0003%	390
219	Liechtenstein	1 in 356,092	0.0003%	371
220	Monaco	1 in 358,995	0.0003%	368
221	British Virgin Islands	1 in 406,493	0.0002%	325
222	Nauru	1 in 436,007	0.0002%	303
223	Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba	1 in 471,822	0.0002%	280
224	Tuvalu	1 in 584,559	0.0002%	226
225	San Marino	1 in 660,551	0.0002%	200
226	Palau	1 in 684,509	0.0001%	193
227	Cook Islands	1 in 742,192	0.0001%	178
228	Anguilla	1 in 1,016,233	< 0.0001%	130
229	Wallis and Futuna Islands	1 in 1,348,064	< 0.0001%	98
230	Saint Barthélemy	1 in 2,492,646	< 0.0001%	53
231	Tokelau	1 in 2,810,857	< 0.0001%	47
232	Falkland Islands (Malvinas)	1 in 3,387,443	< 0.0001%	39
233	Montserrat	1 in 3,387,443	< 0.0001%	39
234	Saint Helena	1 in 3,387,443	< 0.0001%	39
235	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	1 in 4,403,675	< 0.0001%	30
236	Niue	1 in 5,284,410	< 0.0001%	25
237	Holy See	1 in 66,055,131	< 0.0001%	2

The shares sum to 100.00% because each is rounded to four decimal places.

Holy See: 2 · 1 in 66,055,131

Questions this page answers

What are the odds of being born in a specific country?: That country's births in 2023 divided by all births worldwide in 2023. For Japan that is 749,884 ÷ 132,110,261, or 1 in 176.
Why do other sites show a different number?: Usually a different year for the numerator, or a denominator of people alive rather than births. Both choices move the figure by a few percent. We fix both to a single UN reference year so the number can be checked against the source.
Does a 1 in 176 chance mean 1 person in 176 was born there?: It means one baby in every 176 born in 2023 was born there. It says nothing about any individual, and it is not a prediction about anyone's life.

Now live one

The odds on this page describe populations. The game draws one birth and plays that life forward, year by year, from the same tables.

Play a life See the data

Data year: 2023